FreightWaves, a supply chain analytics firm, believes the trucking industry is undergoing a transformation driven by market shifts, geopolitical factors, and changing consumer behavior. In November, FreightWaves officially declared the end of the Great Trucking Recession. CEO Craig Fuller, citing data from the SONAR database, confirmed the reversal of negative trends.
Derek Leathers, president and CEO of Werner, one of the largest trucking companies in the US, also believes the market trajectory is now “up and to the right.” He attributes this long-awaited change to the increasing number of carriers leaving the market – a trend delayed during the recent recession.
It’s important to remember that the market is cyclical, meaning periods of decline and growth repeat and are often predictable. However, there are exceptions, like the Great Trucking Recession, where all trends behaved contrary to expectations. Leathers attributes this anomaly to the lingering effects of the coronavirus pandemic.
Trade relations between the US and China have been strained for some time. This tension will only escalate with the implementation of the Biden administration’s expected higher tariffs in the coming months.
Anticipating this turn of events, many manufacturers are already relocating their operations from China, with the greatest interest directed towards Mexico. The country’s proximity to the US and its solid and inexpensive workforce make it a standout candidate for businesses looking to keep production costs relatively low.
In 2023, Mexico surpassed Canada and China to become the largest trading partner for the US. This trend is expected to continue as more companies plan their future in the country. This will contribute to a significant increase in the flow of goods between the two countries, benefiting carriers across the United States.
“2025 has a chance to show that 2024 was the bottom we are slowly getting out of,” Leathers said. “And I think the further we go, the better for our business.”
For shippers, this means that now is the best time to create a game plan that responds to the new market rules. According to Leathers, a prepared shipper already has a vision for the future and is considering who their core carriers will be and how they can solidify collaboration for long-term growth.
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